Golden Globes 2026: New Odds Show Major Upsets Brewing Across Every Category

The 2026 Golden Globe nominations dropped Monday, instantly igniting awards-season fever across Hollywood. From breakout performances to long-awaited returns, this year’s lineup is stacked with A-list heavyweights, fan-favorite franchises, and surprising newcomers who have turned several categories into full-blown battlegrounds. With films like "One Battle After Another," "Bugonia," "Hamnet," and "Sinners" dominating conversations, industry watchers say this may be one of the most competitive and unpredictable Globes races in recent memory. As the buzz builds and predictions swirl, analysts are already dissecting the trends, and the early numbers suggest that even the so-called “sure things” may not be as safe as they seem.

In its annual awards forecast, Casino Guru USA released fresh odds offering a data-backed look at where the competition stands. Using a composite model based on critic reviews, audience reception, festival momentum, precursor nominations, and historical Golden Globes voting patterns, the analysis, which was sent to The Blast, reveals razor-thin margins, rising spoilers, and several categories that could flip at any moment.

Entertainment expert Marc Sibbons summed it up with, “This year’s Golden Globes are a collision of critical favourites and fan-fuelled franchises… the recipe for surprise wins and viral moments on Globes night.”

Leonardo DiCaprio (+130) currently holds a slight lead for "One Battle After Another," helped by the film topping all nominees with nine total nods, a strong sign of voting momentum.

Timothée Chalamet (+200), however, remains a real threat for "Marty Supreme," earning some of the best reviews of his career and considerable fan buzz.

Lee Byung-Hun (+450) and Ethan Hawke (+550) stay in the mix thanks to dual precursor nominations, while George Clooney (+900) lags behind, with star power that so far hasn’t translated into awards traction.

Emma Stone (-105) enters the race with the strongest critical backing for "Bugonia," though Amanda Seyfried (+180) is gaining prestige momentum for "The Testament of Ann Lee."

Cynthia Erivo’s nomination for "Wicked: For Good" (+450) adds a highly unpredictable, fan-driven element, especially after last year’s perceived snub.

Rose Byrne has emerged as a surprise contender after earning multiple nominations, while Chase Infiniti and Kate Hudson sit further down the odds.

Wagner Moura (+120) has a narrow edge for his performance in "The Secret Agent," praised heavily by critics, but Michael B. Jordan’s explosive awards-season surge for "Sinners," including 17 Critics Choice nominations, has shifted this into a genuine two-man race (+180).

Joel Edgerton remains competitive with high praise for "Train Dreams," while Dwayne Johnson’s dramatic turn in "The Smashing Machine" has respect but mixed reviews.

Oscar Isaac and Jeremy Allen White fall into long-shot territory.

Jessie Buckley (+225) currently leads thanks to her TIFF victory and strong precursor presence for "Hamnet," though Renate Reinsve (+250) is close behind, fueled by widespread critical acclaim.

Eva Victor, nominated for "Sorry, Baby," brings volatility to the category after a breakout year (+300).

Jennifer Lawrence and Julia Robertsbring prestige weight but lack major momentum, while Tessa Thompson rounds out the lineup as the category long shot.

Elle Fanning (+150) holds the advantage with glowing reviews for "Sentimental Value," though Emily Blunt (+225) remains close behind thanks to a widely praised performance in "The Smashing Machine."

Ariana Grande’s nomination for "Wicked: For Good" (+400) injects mainstream pop-culture energy into a category that rarely sees this level of attention, creating real upset potential.

Inga Lilleaas and Teyana Taylor continue as distant contenders.

Paul Thomas Anderson (+200) remains the favorite after "One Battle After Another" dominated the nominations, but Guillermo del Toro’s visually ambitious "Frankenstein" (+225) and Chloé Zhao’s critically lauded "Hamnet" (+275) keep the category extremely tight.

Ryan Coogler’s direction of "Sinners," which topped Critics Choice nominations, positions him as a late-season disruptor.

Marc Sibbons summed up the battlefield by saying, “DiCaprio leads the Comedy/Musical actor race, but Chalamet makes this a genuine two-horse showdown… and in Supporting Actress, Elle Fanning is the clear critical frontrunner, but Ariana Grande brings pop-culture chaos to a category that rarely carries this level of mainstream heat.”

Will Emma Stone hold off Seyfried and Erivo in one of the most competitive categories of the night? Can Michael B. Jordan overtake critical favourite Wagner Moura? Is Ariana Grande poised for a major upset? And does DiCaprio’s nomination sweep guarantee a win or set up a Chalamet surprise?

With prestige dramas clashing against blockbuster fan favorites, the 2026 Golden Globes are shaping up to be one of the most dramatic and unpredictable shows in years.